Gartner is predicting the global sales of mobile phones will increase 11% this year; that’s 1.28 billion phones, compared to 1.15 billion sold in 2006.
But while the overall market looks pretty good, certain regions will experience declining sales this year, as ‘mature’ markets such as Western Europe, Japan and North America are reaching saturation.
Given this, the firm identified five key trends for mobile devices through 2009: established vendors will consolidate, as new manufacturers like Apple join the handset making fray; as prices for handsets fall, device makers will seek new sources of revenue, such as Nokia’s content and services push with its Ovi offering; as devices add more functionality, manufacturers will have to make those new functions even easier to use; style and branding will start to play more of a role as devices become ‘lifestyle statements’; and finally, consumers will want to hold onto high-end devices longer, meaning manufactures need to make devices ‘field-refreshable,’ so more upgrades and updates for devices already in use.
via Gartner
Device manufacturers need to go open-source if they’re to continue making a healthy profit. If handset sales do decline in mature markets, these companies need to give their customers something extra, and you only need to look at iPhone to see that new and genuinely useful applications could be a big part of the solution.
However, despite Android and iPhone kick-starting more rapid innovation in the mobile space – with Symbian now following suit – it is still too hard for applications developers to get on board and start developing on some devices. In an ideal world, developers would presumably like their apps to work across multiple devices and operating systems, but if this is too hard to achieve, then they’ll likely prioritise the ones that are easiest to work with, which could lead to other manufacturers getting left behind.